US-West Africa relations: Strategic dynamics and evolving priorities

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JULY 2025

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by Dr Assi J.C. Kimou

Abstract

This paper explores the evolving nature of US-West Africa relations, with a particular focus on Côte d'Ivoire as a strategic partner. Historically marginal in American foreign policy, Africa has gained prominence due to shifting global dynamics and growing strategic interests in security and economic development. US engagement in Côte d'Ivoire is structured around key pillars: political stability, inclusive economic growth, security sector reform, and human capital development. However, this longstanding partnership is being reshaped by rising geopolitical competition from China and Russia, as well as the impact of the Trump administration's transactional foreign policy approach. The analysis identifies emerging trends in security and economic cooperation and assesses their implications for Côte d'Ivoire and the broader West African region. The paper argues that sustaining and deepening US-West Africa relations will require a recalibration of partnerships, grounded in mutual interests and responsive to regional aspirations. It concludes with a call to action, emphasising the need for improved domestic resource mobilisation, anti-corruption measures, expanded regional trade through the AfCFTA, diversified global partnerships, and continued US-Africa dialogue to strengthen trade and security cooperation.

Introduction

Africa has long been a marginal player in United States (US) foreign policy. American engagement in Africa has gone through different phases, reflecting the changing priorities of US foreign policy and global geopolitical dynamics. Today, Africa represents an increasingly strategic space for the United States, both in terms of security – especially in the fight against terrorism –and economically, with the rise in trade and investment. However, the growing presence of other international players, especially China and Russia, has complicated the geopolitical equation in Africa, challenging the traditional influence of the US on the continent.

In West Africa in general – and specifically with Côte d'Ivoire, established at the country's independence in 1960 – diplomatic relations with the United States have been built on a foundation of multidimensional cooperation, combining development, security, and governance issues. Historically marked by a certain stability, these relations have gradually evolved to adapt to regional dynamics and changes in American foreign policy.

Today, Washington is promoting a strategic vision for Côte d'Ivoire based on three key objectives: political stability, economic dynamism, and strategic alignment with American interests in West Africa.

The focus will be on, firstly, democratic consolidation, through active support for electoral processes and strengthening the rule of law. Secondly, the stimulation of inclusive economic growth, through the development of private investment, the modernisation of energy infrastructures and preferential access to the American market via the AGOA mechanism. Thirdly, reform of the security sector, with particular emphasis on the fight against terrorism and the professionalisation of the armed forces. Fourthly, the improvement of human capital through programmes in the fields of health, education, and adaptation to climate change.

Nevertheless, this historic partnership is facing growing challenges in an increasingly competitive geopolitical environment. China's expansion, marked by massive investment in infrastructure, and Russia's growing influence in West Africa, notably through paramilitary actors and openly anti-Western diplomacy, are adding complexity to the strategic landscape and calling into question the traditional leadership of the United States in the region.

This situation, combined with the inauguration of Donald Trump and his more transactional approach to international relations, led to a reconfiguration of US priorities, potentially shifting Washington's policies toward West Africa – particularly in trade, investment, and security cooperation. This brief explores the contours of the US-Africa relationship, focusing on two main areas: security and economic relations, by providing tentative answers to the following questions:

• What are the current trends of US-West Africa relations?

• What is the expected impact of the new dynamic on West African economies in general? Côte d'Ivoire particularly?

• What are the prospects for West Africa?

  
  

1. US Development Aid: from strong humanitarian support to aid cuts

1.1. Health system and agriculture are likely to be the most hit sectors

For decades, the US has increased support for African development through financial and technical aid in health, education, governance, and agriculture – primarily via the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Between 2000 and 2020, US development aid tripled, with significant funding for health (HIV/AIDS [via PEPFAR], malaria, and other diseases), clean water, and food security. The new US administration under the leadership of President Donald Trump cut USAID funding. Under Trump, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, targeted government spending, with USAID identified as inefficient. A summary of terminated USAID awards shows 68 such terminations for a total estimated cost of US$316,279,020. Separating it by sector indicates: Agriculture: US$68 million in TEC, US$41.6 million obligated; Education: US$2.5 million in TEC, US$10 million obligated; Governance: US$9.4 million in both TEC and obligated; Health: US$19.6 million in TEC, US$19.8 million obligated; Infrastructure: Minor investment (US$10 000); Technology: US$368 000; Logistics: US$200 000; and Other/Unclassified: US$216 million in TEC, US$125 million obligated (see Graph 1) (USAID, 2025).

Graph 1: Terminated USAID fund

Source: Authored from USAID data.

The Fight against HIV/AIDS at stake in Côte d’Ivoire

As Côte d'Ivoire's leading bilateral partner in the health sector, the United States has invested more than US$2 billion since 2004, structuring its action around three strategic pillars: the fight against endemic diseases, the strengthening of health systems, and pandemic preparedness. This partnership has produced remarkable results in the response to the country's major health challenges.

PEPFAR (Presidential Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) is the cornerstone of this cooperation, with a historic investment of US$1.7 billion since 2004, including US$111 million in 2021 alone. This crucial programme provides 75% of the antiretrovirals used in the country and enables 240,000 Ivorians living with HIV to access treatment, with an impressive viral suppression rate of 89% (214,000 patients).

There is also a sustained commitment to the fight against malaria, with annual funding of US$25 million, which has helped to reduce malaria-related mortality by 40% since 2010. At the same time, USAID's maternal and child health programmes, with funding of US$12.5 million in 2021, have led to significant improvements in the care of mothers and newborns.

In the face of pandemic threats, the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) has strengthened Côte d'Ivoire's capacity to detect and respond to epidemics. This preparedness was particularly evident during the COVID-19 crisis, with a donation of 4.8 million doses of vaccine and direct financial aid of US$13 million.

American technical expertise, embodied by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which has been present since 1987, has enabled major advances to be made. The Retro-CI laboratory, the flagship of this cooperation, became the only World Health Organization (WHO) reference centre for HIV diagnostics in West Africa in 2021, symbolising the excellence of this health partnership.

These massive, targeted investments have transformed Côte d'Ivoire's healthcare landscape, making the United States a key partner in building a more resilient healthcare system that is accessible to the entire population.

The consequences of the cessation of USAID funding are likely to reflect the results of the study conducted by the Cires Economic Policy Analysis Unit (CAPEC) (2018) to assess the economic and health benefits of investing additional funds into Côte d'Ivoire's national response to HIV, to a significant reduction in international funding. This study, titled ‘Invest now or pay later’, estimated the costs associated with interrupting the cycle of HIV transmission by 2020.

Three simulation scenarios were adopted by the study: the Status quo scenario, showing an unchanged level of funding due to an equal compensation of the resources lost by the government; Optimistic scenario, or a 37% increase in public funding to purse the government’s health goals for compensation despite a drop in international support; and the Pessimistic scenario, indicating a 20% reduction in the health-related budget, a gap that is not filled by public funding.

Table 1: Summary of microsimulation health-related results: 2020-2025

Source: CAPEC, 2018

In terms of health outcomes, if the government's efforts are based on the stable scenario, 4,740 lives would be saved and 17,493 new infections avoided. And if these efforts result in more than proportional funding of around 37% compared with 2016, then 42,387 lives could be saved and almost 50,000 new infections avoided.

In financial terms, moving from the stable scenario to the optimistic scenario requires average annual funding of FCFA 6.3 billion. Moving from the stable scenario to the pessimistic scenario results in a drop in funding of around FCFA 12.67 billion per year. Cumulative tax revenue losses range from FCFA 13.16 billion for the pessimistic scenario to FCFA 8.68 billion for the stable scenario and FCFA 5.67 billion for the optimistic scenario.

In all three scenarios, economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire will slow. In the status quo scenario, GDP will fall by 0.005 percentage points between 2016 and 2019. This decline will continue until 2025, when it will reach 0.035 points (see Graph 2).

Graph 2: Tentative macroeconomic impacts of aid cuts: trend in GDP

Source: CAPEC, 2018

Military and security cooperation between the United States and Côte d'Ivoire

Security cooperation between the United States and Côte d'Ivoire is a major focus of their strategic partnership. Over the period 2020-2024, the United States has allocated an average annual budget of US$12 to 15 million dollars to strengthen the capabilities of the Ivorian security forces. This financial support is divided between several key programmes, including the IMET (International Military Education and Training) programme, which has been allocated US$2.5 million a year to train 50 to 70 Ivorian officers in the United States, and the ACOTA (African Contingency Operations Training and Assistance) programme, which has received US$3.8 million since 2020 to develop peacekeeping capabilities.

The impact of this cooperation can be measured by concrete results. Between 2015 and 2023, American programmes will have trained 5,400 members of the armed and security forces, including 1,200 women, covering a wide range of specialisations: 60% in counterterrorism, 20% in intelligence, 15% in logistics, and 5% in human rights. Côte d'Ivoire's active participation in regional exercises such as Flintlock (counterterrorism) and Obangame Express (maritime security), with 150 soldiers involved in 2023 alone, demonstrates the growing operationality of Ivorian troops.

On the ground, this collaboration has produced tangible results with the securing of four strategic military bases in the north of the country, including Odienné and Bouna, and the equipping of three modern command centres. Intelligence sharing has helped to thwart 12 potential terrorist attacks between 2022 and 2023, while more than 450 weapons were seized thanks to American technical assistance between 2021 and 2023.

Performance indicators show significant progress: 18 terrorist attacks have been prevented since 2020, including six at the borders, and the response time to threats has been reduced by 40% over the same period. These advances have helped to position Côte d'Ivoire as a key player in regional stability in West Africa, confirming the effectiveness of this security partnership in the face of contemporary challenges.

2. Restrictive Immigration Policies: remittances and access to the US Higher Education system in jeopardy

Educational and cultural cooperation between the United States and West Africa is an important pillar of bilateral relations. Every year, some 50 Ivorians benefit from exchange programmes run by the US Department of State's Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, notably through the prestigious Fulbright scholarships, which enable Ivorian students and researchers to study at American universities. At the same time, American teachers and academics regularly come to Côte d'Ivoire to share their expertise, creating a fruitful academic dialogue between the two nations.

Graph 3: Number of West African Students in the United States

Source: Author

However, an analysis of student flows over the last decade (2014-2024) reveals contrasting trends. While the West African region as a whole has seen a significant 66% increase in the number of students going to the United States, Côte d'Ivoire has seen more modest growth.

Besides limiting West African students’ access to the US higher education system, another implication of the US’s restrictive immigration policy is the number of remittances flows at stake for the region.

In West and Central Africa, remittances show overall growth, rising from around US$ 6 billion in 2014 to almost US$ 7 billion in 2023, with a notable drop in 2016 (around US$ 3.9 billion), followed by a gradual recovery up to 2023. In the case of Côte d'Ivoire, the amounts are much lower than in the region as a whole, fluctuating around US$ 300 to 400 million a year. A significant increase can be seen in 2021 (around US$ 750 million), followed by a return to previous levels. Nevertheless, the cost of a dire restriction will be higher due the number of African citizens expelled from the US by the new US administration.

Graph 4: Remittances of West African migrants living in the United States

Source: Author

3. Economic and Trade Relations: A Changing Dynamic

3.1. From Aid to Trade: the questioning of the AGOA close market opportunity for West African economies

US-Africa economic relations have shifted over decades, alternating between strong interest and relative neglect. Africa offers a growing market with abundant natural resources and a young, dynamic population. The US has adapted its trade strategy to encourage exchange and investment. However, trade remains limited, and competition from China and India poses major challenges.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), launched in 2000 under the Clinton administration, aimed to offer African countries preferential access to the US market. It removed tariffs on certain products to boost African exports and economic growth through trade rather than aid.

AGOA helped triple non-oil exports from Africa to the US, diversifying imports to include agriculture, textiles, and automobiles. For example, South Africa became a top exporter, notably in the auto sector (US$2.1 billion in 2021), with a 1,643.6% increase in the first year of AGOA; Nigeria exported US$1.4 billion in 2021, mainly oil; and Kenya, third with US$603 million, led by apparel exports.

Other beneficiaries include Ghana (plant roots, travel goods), Mauritius (chocolate, basketry), Mali (buckwheat), Mozambique (sugar, nuts, tobacco), Togo (legumes), and Madagascar, Ethiopia, Lesotho (textiles).

Despite AGOA’s benefits, trade remains focused on raw materials, especially oil. In 2021, Nigeria’s oil exports under AGOA made up most of its US trade. Only 18 African countries have national strategies to maximise AGOA opportunities, causing regional disparities. The US International Trade Commission (ITC) notes major export gains by South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya.

A graph from USITC / Department of Commerce (www.AGOA.info) shows total AGOA exports from 2000–2022, highlighting strong growth until 2008, followed by volatility tied to commodity prices and policy shifts.

Graph 5: AGOA beneficiaries exports to the United States

Source: USITC / Department of Commerce (www.AGOA.info)

The US remains a key Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) player in Africa but lags behind the European Union (EU) and China in scale and diversity. US FDI is mostly in extractives (oil and mining), while others invest more in infrastructure and manufacturing. Only 13% of US FDI targets manufacturing, compared to over 40% for the EU.

Each US administration has prioritised different aspects of engagement with Africa. The Trump presidency (2017–2021) marked a shift toward transactional bilateral relations, focused on American interests (“America First Policy”) and reducing multilateral involvement. Trump’s approach emphasised competition with China and Russia, seeking to curb their growing influence while reducing US development programmes. Trump questioned AGOA’s value to US companies and hinted at revising or replacing it with more favourable bilateral trade deals.

3.2. Cote d’Ivoire will need to resettle new market opportunities

Trade relations between the United States and Côte d'Ivoire are characterised by a structural surplus in favour of Côte d'Ivoire. Over the period from 2014 to 2025, US imports of Ivorian goods regularly exceeded exports to Côte d'Ivoire. The peak of this surplus is observed in 2019, with a total of US$924 million in imports compared with US$278 million in US exports, giving a trade surplus of US$645 million in favour of Côte d’Ivoire.

US imports from Côte d'Ivoire remained strong overall over the period, hovering around US$1 billion between 2014 and 2018. However, these imports declined in 2019 and 2020, probably due to the volatility of world commodity prices and the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2021 onwards, imports resumed their growth and reached a new peak in 2024 at around US$1.05 billion. US exports to Côte d'Ivoire continued to grow. They rose from US$239 million in 2014 to US$596 million in 2024, reflecting a strengthening of bilateral economic relations. This trend reflects growing demand from the United States for capital goods, vehicles, industrial machinery, pharmaceuticals, and agri-food products. From 2023 onwards, trade flows will show a convergence of import and export volumes. By 2024, the gap between the two will have narrowed to around US$109 million.

The privileged framework of the AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) is the main lever for this economic cooperation, allowing 78 Ivorian companies to export to the United States duty-free by 2022. Côte d'Ivoire's main exports include cocoa (the country is the world's leading producer), petroleum products and agricultural by-products, which together account for more than 85% of Ivorian sales to the United States.

US investment in Côte d'Ivoire is growing steadily, with an increase of 40% between 2015 and 2020. These investments are mainly concentrated in three key sectors: energy (including hydrocarbons and renewable energies), digital technologies (innovative solutions for agriculture and health) and financial services. Several American multinationals have set up production and processing facilities in Côte d'Ivoire, taking advantage of the country's economic stability and its position as a regional hub in West Africa.

The prospects for developing this economic relationship are based on several strategic axes. Côte d'Ivoire is actively working on the local processing of its raw materials, particularly cocoa, with a view to exporting higher value-added products. At the same time, the United States is supporting the development of Côte d'Ivoire's logistics and port infrastructures, which are essential for facilitating trade. The emergence of a consumer middle class is also opening up new opportunities for American products and technologies on the Ivorian market.

The two governments are also working closely together to improve the business climate, simplify customs procedures, and promote public-private partnerships. Training programmes on American norms and standards are regularly organised for Ivorian entrepreneurs and exporters. These concerted efforts position Côte d'Ivoire as a privileged economic partner of the United States in the West African region, with promising growth prospects in the medium and long term. The complementary nature of the two economies and the positive dynamics of trade suggest that this mutually beneficial cooperation will deepen in the years to come.

Conclusion

US-Africa relations have significantly evolved, shaped by strategic interests and shifting global dynamics. Africa is now a key player in US foreign policy, especially in security and trade. Yet challenges persist – mainly in diversifying economic ties and adapting to geopolitical competition from China and Russia.

The Trump administration introduced a more transactional approach, changing the nature of cooperation. The future of US-Africa relations will depend on both sides’ ability to balance priorities in security, development, and economic partnership – while addressing global challenges collaboratively.

An analysis of relations between the United States and Côte d'Ivoire reveals a strategic partnership structured around complementary pillars of regional stability, economic cooperation, and sustainable development. The density and diversity of the areas of cooperation (health, security, economy, education) reflect Washington's clear desire to strengthen its foothold in West Africa, by relying on a partner that is considered stable, dynamic, and strategically well positioned.

The results achieved, particularly in the fight against HIV/AIDS, the strengthening of military capabilities, and the increase in trade, bear witness to a partnership with high added value for Côte d'Ivoire. However, this privileged relationship is now evolving in a more competitive international environment, marked by the rise of new players such as China and Russia, which are redefining the geopolitical balance on the continent.

As a result, the relationship between the United States and Côte d'Ivoire must deal with the growing challenges of sovereignty, diversification of partnerships, and reconfiguration of alliances. To remain attractive, American cooperation will have to be more agile, inclusive, and tailored to Côte d'Ivoire's national development aspirations. In this respect, the ability of both countries to renew the terms of their partnership – by focusing on innovation, training, and skills transfer – will be decisive in meeting the challenges of the 21st century and consolidating a more balanced and resilient bilateral relationship.

From these findings, make a call for action by: 

• Increasing domestic resource mobilisation through efficient tax policy enhanced domestic resource mobilisation;

• Fighting against corruption for efficient public resources management;

• Increasing regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA);

• Enhancing and developing new/other strategic partnership for the expansion of markets in the global economy;

• Keeping the dialogue open with the US to improve trade relations and security cooperation.

References

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Online sources

US Department of State – Côte d’Ivoire Country Page:

https://www.state.gov/countries-areas/cote-divoire

https://history.state.gov/countries/cote-divoire

https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-cote-divoire/

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https://opendoorsdata.org/data/international-students/all-places-of-origin/

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https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/index.html

AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) Resources – USITC / Dept. of Commerce:

http://www.AGOA.info

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This report has been published by the Inclusive Society Institute

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