RISING DISTRUST: GovDem survey shows sharp increase in anti-immigration sentiment in South Africa

Daryl Swanepoel
Sep 3
14 min read

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DISCLAIMER

Views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of

the Inclusive Society Institute or its Board or Council members.

September 2025

Author: Daryl Swanepoel

CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

1 THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

2 THE INCLUSIVE SOCIETY INSTITUTE’S CONCERN

3 ABOUT THE GOVDEM SURVEY

4 SURVEY RESULTS

4.1 Overall trust in immigrants from Africa

4.2 Age, employment and gender differences

4.3 Trends over time

5 ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

6 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 Distinguish clearly between legal and illegal immigration

6.2 Curb unlawful vigilantism and uphold the rule of law

6.3 Anchor policymaking in empirical evidence

6.4 Enforce labour and immigration laws effectively

6.5 Strengthen integration programmes to promote social cohesion

6.6 Reaffirm constitutional and human rights commitments

7 CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

Cover photo: istock.com - Stock photo ID:2212407849

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the findings of the Inclusive Society Institute’s GovDem Poll, undertaken with IPSOS as part of its Khayabus survey, on South Africans’ attitudes towards immigrants from elsewhere in Africa. Based on over 3,000 face-to-face interviews in respondents’ homes and home languages and weighted in line with national demographics, the survey provides a robust measure of public sentiment with a margin of error of three to five percent.

The 2025 results show high and rising distrust. 73.1 percent of respondents reported that they do not trust immigrants from Africa “at all” or “not very much. Longitudinal data confirms a worsening trend during the last five years, with distrust in immigrants from Africa rising from 62.6 percent in 2021 to a staggering 73.1 percent in 2025.

This paper includes further analyses by age, race, gender and employment status, it offers recommendations to guide evidence-based governance and concludes that South Africa must replace fear with facts and unlawful action with lawful governance, if we are to build an inclusive society.

1 THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa has historically always been a destination for migrants from across the African continent. They have and continue to be drawn to the country due to its comparatively stronger economy, its advanced infrastructure and the opportunities for education and work (Okunade, 2024). However, at the same time, the country is grappling with deep rooted challenges, such as poverty, unemployment and inequality. It is these challenges which serve to heighten social tensions between the immigrants and the local communities (Faluyi & Olutola, 2024). It is in this context that immigration has become a sensitive and polarising issue.

The public discourse is frequently marked by debates over the perceived economic and social impact of immigrants. On the one hand, whilst migrants contribute meaningfully to local economies, by filling labour gaps, starting businesses and enriching South Africa’s cultural fabric (OECD/ILO, 2018), there are, on the other hand widespread perceptions, particularly amongst the vulnerable communities that are struggling with unemployment, that immigrants are competing for scarce jobs, housing and public services, such as healthcare and education. These pressures have, at times, spilled over into xenophobic violence and hostility and it is the migrants from elsewhere in Africa that have borne the brunt thereof (Yingi, Ncube & Benyera. 2023).

In recent years tensions between immigrants from Africa and local communities have grown and immigrants have been provoked by locals in a more organised and confrontational manner. Movements, such as Operation Dudula, have been mobilising local communities to act against foreign nationals, which they often do so through intimidation and harassment. Tactics also include demands for the removal of immigrants from state facilities, such as hospitals and schools and vigilantes also try to force immigrants out of their jobs, out of their businesses and out of the local neighbourhoods (HRW, 2024). These extra-judicial actions not only undermine the rule of law, they also deepen mistrust and resentment and moreover, it is ventured, immigrants often end up serving as an excuse for public service non-performance and as convenient scapegoats for the broader structural challenges facing the nation, such as crime, structural unemployment and poor service delivery. All of this reflects a societal environment that risks fuelling (some, including the author, may even argue already has) social division due to the fear-mongering and misinformation.

2 THE INCLUSIVE SOCIETY INSTITUTE’S CONCERN

The Inclusive Society Institute (ISI), which works to strengthen democracy and to foster social cohesion in South Africa, has consistently warned against the dangers of inflated rhetoric and unlawful vigilantism. It has stressed that inflated figures about the scale of illegal immigration distort the debate, fuels resentment and helps creates conditions ripe for hostility between the immigrant and local communities.

Senior political leaders, such as Action SA’s leader, Herman Mashaba and the then Home Affairs Minister Aaron Motsoaledi, have respectively bandied around figures as high as 15 million (Hoffman, 2025) and 13 million (ISI, 2022). Key findings from opinion surveys conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) suggest that many South Africans believe the number of illegal immigrants in the country to be as high as 17- 40 million (ISI, 2022).

Empirical data, however, such as that of Stats SA, suggest a far smaller illegal migrant population than often claimed. According to a Stats SA statement in August 2021 there were around 3,95 million foreign born persons (legal and illegal immigrants) in South Africa (Stats SA, 2021). Whilst data on the exact number of illegal immigrants is lacking, through deduction it is plausible to assume that around half of the foreign born persons are in the country illegal (Gordon in ISI, 2022). Home Affairs could, for example, only account for around 2 million foreign born persons (Iturralde in ISI, 2022). The Inclusive Society Institute has consistently argued that there is a profound difference between dealing with a challenge of 2 million versus figures that are higher than 13-15 million, which are frequently cited in public discourse without evidence.

For the Inclusive Society Institute, ensuring rational, evidence-based debate is not only a matter of good governance, it is necessary to safeguard South Africa’s fragile social fabric, because social cohesion is weakened when fear and populism drive public opinion, and strengthened when facts, fairness and inclusivity underpin policymaking. The Institute has therefore stressed the need for sober, evidence-based policy decisions and stronger institutional capacity, as opposed to populist interventions or unlawful acts by civic groups

3 ABOUT THE GOVDEM SURVEY

The Inclusive Society Institute’s GovDem Survey (ISI, 2025) is conducted in partnership with IPSOS as part of its long-standing syndicated Khayabus Survey (IPSOS, 2025), one of the largest and most reliable public opinion surveys undertaken in South Africa. It comprises around 3,600 respondents from across the nation.

To ensure the accuracy of the responses and inclusivity, the respondents are interviewed face-to-face their own homes and in their home language and therefore eliminates many of the barriers that telephone or online surveys often present. This approach also helps to ensure that participants are comfortable, understood and able to express their views freely and authentically.

The survey sample is carefully weighted in line with South Africa’s demographics, which means it reflects the diversity of the country in terms of age, gender, race, geography and socio-economic status and on this basis, the findings can be regarded as a fair representation of South Africans’ prevailing sentiment at the time of that the survey was conducted. In this case between May and July of 2025 (Harris, 2025).

As with all surveys of this scale and magnitude, a margin of error is to be expected. In this survey the margin of error is around 2 percent. This margin does not detract from the robustness of the insights, which policymakers, civil society and the public can comfortably consider as reliable evidence of the prevailing attitudes in the country at the time that the survey was conducted (Harris, 2025).

4 SURVEY RESULTS

4.1 Overall trust in immigrants from Africa

Having set out the broader context and outlined the GovDem Survey’s methodology, we now turn to the results of the survey. The findings reveal a striking level of distrust among South Africans towards immigrants from elsewhere on the continent. When asked whether they trusted people from these groups and measured against the responses “I don’t trust them at all” or “I do not trust them very much,” 73.1 percent of respondents indicated such negative sentiment.

Notably, this distrust is not confined to one segment of society, but is broadly shared across South Africa’s racial groups. Among white respondents, 72.48 percent expressed distrust, among black respondents, it was 73.17 percent, among Indian respondents, 75.22 percent and among coloured respondents it was 72.61 percent. The sentiment therefore cuts across the racial divide, reflecting a widespread national attitude rather than an isolated viewpoint within a particular community.

4.2 Age, employment and gender differences

When analysing the survey results by age, it also emerges that all age groups reflect similarly high levels of distrust towards immigrants from elsewhere in Africa. Among the youngest group, 18–24 year olds, 74.12 percent indicated that they did not trust immigrants. For 25–34 year olds, the figure was 71.22 percent, for those aged 35–49, 71.74 percent and among respondents over 50 years old, 76.16 percent. These results show that the sentiment is broadly uniform across generations, with only marginal differences.
Where a more marked differentiation emerges is between those respondents who are employed and those who are not. Among respondents who reported being in employment, 70.06 percent indicated distrust of immigrants. By contrast, among those who reported being unemployed, the figure rises to 77.31 percent. This could suggest that joblessness intensifies the negative perceptions that local communities have of African immigrants, which is most probably due to the belief that they, the immigrants that is, are competing in the labour market to the detriment of the local job seekers.
Finally, when comparing survey results by gender, a slight divergence is evident, with men expressing distrust in immigrants from Africa at a rate of 71.39 percent, while women reflect a slightly higher distrust at 74.33 percent. Women are thus marginally more concerned about the presence of African immigrants in the country than their male compatriots, but, as already said, the gap is relatively small.

Graphic 1: % of respondents distrusting of immigrants from African countries (various demographics)

(Source: Author, 2025)

4.3 Trends over time

The GovDem Survey also provides disturbing insight into how attitudes towards immigrants from Africa have hardened over the past five years. In 2021, 62.63 percent of respondents indicated that they did not trust immigrants “at all” or “not very much” and in 2022, the figure was almost identical at 62.72 percent. But by 2023, however, the percentage had risen to 67.74 percent and in 2024 it continued to remain elevated (66.98 percent). The most recent survey, that was conducted in mid-2025, shows that distrust has again risen sharply to an alarming 73.1 percent.

The results of the survey indicate that while anti-immigrant sentiment has consistently been high, hovering in the low sixty percent range, it has been steadily worsening over time and it has now (between 2024 and 2025) registered a particularly notable increase. This sharp rise may plausibly be argued to be linked to the heightened attention illegal immigration has received in public discourse, as well as the protest actions and vigilante campaigns, such as those driven by movements like Operation Dudula, which have amplified the issue in the national consciousness of late.

Graphic 2: Distrust of immigrants from Africa – a five-year (2021 – 2025) trend

(Source: Author, 2025)

5 ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

The findings of the Inclusive Society Institute’s GovDem Survey underscores the persistence and intensification of the anti-immigrant sentiment in South Africa and what is striking about it, is not only the consistently high levels of distrust, but so too the fact that these attitudes cut across race, age and gender. This would suggest that the distrust of immigrants hailing from elsewhere in Africa has emerged as a shared national concern, which can no longer be ascribed to any particular community and/or demographic cohort. The broad-based nature of the sentiment arguably reflects just how deeply woven into the nation’s shared socio-economic anxieties the immigration concerns have become.

The sharp divergence between the employed and the unemployed respondents is particularly telling and it suggests that unemployment exacerbates the fears that the immigrants are competitors for scarce jobs and resources. This perception, whether or not borne out by evidence, points to a deeper structural problem, namely that the widespread economic insecurity is fuelling resentment. Moreover, immigrants are becoming the scapegoat for frustrations that are, at its source, about inequality and exclusion.

The trend-data reinforces this interpretation, because while distrust has long hovered in the low to mid-sixties range, it has suddenly, between 2024 and 2025, risen sharply, which period also aligns with that of intensified political and media focus on immigration and increased protest and vigilante activity. Arguably, this would suggest that public sentiment is not static and that it can be inflamed by populist rhetoric, misinformation and highly visible acts of anti-immigrant mobilisation.

Read together, the results of the GovDem Survey present a warning signal that South Africa faces a growing risk of the anti-immigrant sentiment eroding social cohesion and deepening societal divisions (if left unaddressed). Moreover, it will undermine the inclusive values enshrined in the Constitution. And so for the Inclusive Society Institute, the imperative is clear: Fear needs to be countered with facts and bridges of solidarity need to be built. Moreover, it is to ensure that immigration policy is guided by evidence and the principles of democracy, rather than by populism or unlawful vigilantism.

6 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

The results of the GovDem Survey, when coupled and considered within the broader social context, point to the urgent need for a more coherent and balanced approach to immigration policy, from which the following recommendations emerge:

6.1 Distinguish clearly between legal and illegal immigration

Government must urgently draw a line of clarity between those immigrants who are in the country legally and those who are not. At present, the conflation of the two feeds public anxiety and undermines long-term social cohesion. A distinction is also critical to ensuring South Africa retains much-needed skills brought by legal immigrants, which contribute to building the economy, because whilst it is so that some immigrants may compete for jobs, many others fill gaps in scarce professions and therefore the presence of suitably qualified legal immigrants should be recognised as an asset, not a liability.

6.2 Curb unlawful vigilantism and uphold the rule of law

As the Inclusive Society Institute has emphasised, inflated rhetoric and unlawful actions by civic groups or individuals set a dangerous precedent and they, no matter their concerns, have no business in enforcing the laws of the country, that remains the role of the state. Allowing vigilante actions against immigrants undermines state authority, disrupts vital public services and risks legitimising illegality. The authorities must send a clear signal that unlawful enforcement will not be tolerated.

6.3 Anchor policymaking in empirical evidence

The Inclusive Society Institute has already cautioned against inflated figures, which fuel hostility and panic, and accordingly, accurate, evidence-based data on migration must inform public policy. This includes refining population counts, understanding the real scale of irregular migration and communicating these facts to the public in an accessible manner, because without this, populist claims will continue to dominate the discourse and in so doing, worsen mistrust.

6.4 Enforce labour and immigration laws effectively

Given South Africa’s strained economic position and persistently high unemployment, it is unrealistic to assume that growth alone will resolve competition over jobs and therefore a more immediate and practical step is to ensure the effective enforcement of labour and immigration laws.

Employers must be required to hire only South Africans and legal immigrants, with strong penalties for those found employing undocumented workers. To effectively police this, regular workplace inspections and transparent enforcement mechanisms should be instituted to protect vulnerable local job seekers. It appears current efforts are ineffective and lacking.

Critically, government must demonstrate greater resolve in curbing the inflow of illegal immigrants into the country, because it is clear that the issue is progressively growing larger, which reflects gaps in enforcement and implementation. If the flow is properly managed, the conditions that fuel social unrest and vigilante actions would be diminished, making such unlawful responses unnecessary in the first place.

6.5 Strengthen integration programmes to promote social cohesion

Distrust of immigrants is pervasive across race, age and gender groups, which points to the need for deliberate, state- and community-led initiatives to foster integration, such as public education campaigns, community dialogues and support for immigrant-owned businesses. So too, building broader public awareness of the positive contributions migrants make to society, can help counterbalance the narrative of fear and suspicion.

6.6 Reaffirm constitutional and human rights commitments

South Africa’s Constitution and international obligations guarantee access to essential services and protects against discrimination and therefore the country’s immigration policy must remain aligned with these principles in spite of the growing populist onslaught against them. While the enforcement of laws need to be strengthened, dignity and human rights need to be ensured and safeguarded.

7 CONCLUSION

The findings of the GovDem Survey are clear, and that is that distrust toward immigrants from Africa is high, widespread and rising and the distrust cuts across race, gender and age groups, reflecting a national concern that can no longer be ignored. The sharp increase in negative sentiment over the past year suggests that public debate, populist rhetoric and unlawful campaigns, such as vigilante actions, have contributed to the inflaming of public attitudes.

For the Inclusive Society Institute, whose mission is to strengthen democracy and foster social cohesion, the message is equally clear: South Africa cannot afford for the immigration debate to be driven by fear, inflated figures and unlawful action.

Policymaking must be anchored in empirical evidence and a clear distinction must urgently be drawn between legal and illegal immigrants. At the same time, government must do its job better, by enforcing immigration and labour laws effectively and by curbing the inflow of undocumented immigrants. Only then can the conditions that give rise to social unrest and vigilante action be eliminated.

The challenge now is to strengthen social cohesion, by countering mistrust and hostility with fact-based debate and to ensure that legal immigrants, many of whom bring scarce and much-needed skills, are seen as contributors to building a stronger economy. It is only through a balanced, lawful and dignified approach that South Africa can ensure that immigration does not weaken its democracy, but instead advances the constitutional ideal of an inclusive society.

South Africa must replace fear with facts and unlawful action with lawful governance, if we are to build an inclusive society.

REFERENCES

Faluyi, O.T. & Olutola, A.A. 2024. Poverty in South Africa: Drivers of Perpetuation. African Journal of Inter/Multidisciplinary Studies 2024, 6(1): 1-13

Harris, M. 2025. Zoom meeting between the author and Mari Harris, Director of IPSOS (South Africa) on 25 August 2025.

Hoffman, P. 2025. The rights of undocumented immigrants in SA. [Online] Available at: https://accountabilitynow.org.za/the-rights-of-undocumented-immigrants-in-sa/#:~:text=Previous%20claims%20by%20the%20party%20that%20there,when%20the%20most%20recent%20census%20was%20held. [accessed: 23 August 2025]

Human Rights Watch (HRW). 2024. World Report 2025: South Africa. [Online] Available at: https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2024/country-chapters/south-africa#:~:text=Violence%20against%20women%20and%20girls%20is%20widespread%2C%20endemic%2C%20and%20an,the%20highest%20femicide%20rates%20worldwide [accessed: 22 August 2024]

Inclusive Society Institute (ISI). 2022. Developing an effective response to addressing xenophobia in South Africa. [Online] Available at: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jAuVT3ePb-2Q0cjrihPxp6ua795UaV-i/view [accessed: 23 August 2025]

Inclusive Society Institute (ISI). 2025. GovDem Survey. Cape Town: ISI

Organisation for Economic Development and Cooperation/Internal Labour Organisation (OECD/ILO). 2018. How Immigrants Contribute to South Africa’s Economy. Paris: OECD Publishing.

Okunade, S. K. 2024. Addressing irregular migration into South Africa: Paradiplomatic efforts of subnational governments in the Limpopo Province. South African Journal of International Affairs, 31(4), 475–495.

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). 2021. Erroneous reporting of undocumented migrants in SA. [Online] Available at: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=14569 [accessed: 23 August 2025]

Yingi, E., Ncube, T. & Benyera, E. 2023. Situating Dashed Prospects of Independence into the Xenophobic Narrative in South Africa. Journal of Black Studies, 55(1), 68-89.

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This report has been published by the Inclusive Society Institute

The Inclusive Society Institute (ISI) is an autonomous and independent institution that functions independently from any other entity. It is founded for the purpose of supporting and further deepening multi-party democracy. The ISI’s work is motivated by its desire to achieve non-racialism, non-sexism, social justice and cohesion, economic development and equality in South Africa, through a value system that embodies the social and national democratic principles associated with a developmental state. It recognises that a well-functioning democracy requires well-functioning political formations that are suitably equipped and capacitated. It further acknowledges that South Africa is inextricably linked to the ever transforming and interdependent global world, which necessitates international and multilateral cooperation. As such, the ISI also seeks to achieve its ideals at a global level through cooperation with like-minded parties and organs of civil society who share its basic values. In South Africa, ISI’s ideological positioning is aligned with that of the current ruling party and others in broader society with similar ideals.

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