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Green Industrialisation In Tunisia Under The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Aligning European Climate Policy With Tunisia’s Industrial Transformation And Fiscal Sustainability

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Image credit: AI-generated illustration produced with OpenAI (DALL·E), 2026.

 

by Sameh Abidi

 

Abstract

  

The introduction of theCarbon Border   Adjustment   Mechanism   (CBAM)   by the European Union represents a structural transformation at the intersection of climate policy and international trade. Designed to prevent carbon leakage and ensure a level playing field between European producers   subject   to   the   EU   Emissions   Trading   System   (ETS) and   foreign exporters, the mechanism applies a carbon price to selected imported goods   such   as   cement, fertilizers,   aluminium,   and   electricity.   While CBAM reinforces the credibility of European climate ambition under the Paris Agreement, it also generates significant economic challenges for neighbouring economies closely integrated into European value chains.

  

This paper examines the implications of CBAM for Tunisia, where approximately 70% of exports are directed toward the European market and   where   industrial   production   remains   both   carbon-intensive   and   highly dependent   on   fossil   fuels. By   focusing   on   the   sectors most   exposed   to   the mechanism—cement, fertilizers, aluminium, and electricity—the study provides a quantitative-informed assessment of potential impacts. Preliminary   estimates suggest   that   carbon pricing   levels   ranging between €70 and €95 per ton of CO₂ (https://sl1nk.com/vcOIq) could substantially increase export costs in energy-intensive sectors, potentially reducing profit margins and undermining international competitiveness. At the macroeconomic level, these   effects   may   translate into   indirect   fiscal pressures   through   declining export   revenues,   lower   industrial   output,   and   increased   demands   for   public investment in energy transition.

  

In this context, CBAM operates as an implicit carbon tax on Tunisia’s energy system, revealing structural vulnerabilities in the country’s industrial   model. However,   beyond   these   immediate   risks, the   mechanism may also act as a catalyst for structural transformation. The transition toward green industrialisation is no longer solely an environmental objective but an economic necessity for maintaining access to European markets.   The   development   of   renewable   energy, particularly   solar   and   wind power,   combined   with   improvements   in   industrial   energy efficiency   and   thedecarbonisation of energy-intensive sectors, could enable Tunisia to reposition itself within emerging Euro–Mediterranean green value chains.

  

The paper further examines the fiscal and financial implications of this transition.   Tunisia   faces   constrained   public finances   and   rising debt   levels, limiting its capacity to finance large-scale decarbonisation investments. European financial instruments, including the Global Gateway initiative and   financing   from   the   European   Investment   Bank   (EIB)   and   the   European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), are analysed as potential sources of support. However, their predominantly loan-based structure and associated conditionalities raise concerns regarding debt sustainability and long-term fiscal stability, particularly in the absence of sufficient grant-based financing.

  

In addition, the study integrates the social dimension of the transition by highlighting potential risks related to employment in carbon-intensive sectors, regional inequalities, and unequal access to green investment opportunities.   Without   adequate mitigation   measures,   the   decarbonisation process could exacerbate existing socio-economic disparities.

  

Against this backdrop, the article raises a central question: Can the European Union impose a carbon cost on imports without providing proportional financial and technological support to its trading partners? Addressing this issue requires incorporating principles of climate justice, including   differentiated   responsibilities   and   equitable burden   sharing   in   the global energy transition. Without such considerations, CBAM risks reinforcing existing asymmetries in international trade and development.

  

To   transform   CBAM   into   a   lever   for   co-development   rather than   a   punitive trade instrument, the paper proposes a set of operational and sector-specific policy recommendations. These include allocating a share of CBAM revenues to partner countries, increasing the use of grants in European climate finance, promoting targeted industrial decarbonisation strategies, and strengthening technological cooperation between European and Tunisian industries.   At the national level, priorities include securing   domestic   energy   supply, ensuring   local industrial participation in green investments, safeguarding fiscal sustainability, and enhancing transparency in international partnerships.

  

Finally, the paper emphasises the importance of inclusive governance mechanisms that integrate civil society participation and parliamentary oversight in the design and implementation of climate-related economic policies. A transition financed primarily through external debt risks undermining the very development objectives it seeks to achieve. Ultimately, the success of Tunisia’s transition will depend not only on financial and technological resources but also on institutional capacity, fiscal governance, and the ability to ensure a socially just and economically sustainable transformation.

  

In conclusion, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism represents a pivotal moment in the evolving relationship between climate governance, trade   policy, and   industrial   development.   For   Tunisia,   it   may   either deepen structural vulnerabilities or serve as a catalyst for a new model of sustainable industrialisation. The outcome will depend on the extent of alignment between European climate ambitions, Tunisian industrial strategies, and broader reforms toward a more equitable and inclusive global energy transition.

  

Keywords:   Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Green Industrialisation, Tunisia, Energy Transition, Euro-Mediterranean Green Value Chains


Introduction

  

Climate policies are increasingly shaping global trade and industrial development. In recent years, climate governance has expanded beyond environmental regulation to become a central element of international economic policy. One of the most significant developments in this area is the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), introduced as part of the European Green Deal   and   the   broader Fit   for   55 legislative package, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels (European Commission, 2023).(https://l1nq.com/m99Rl)

  

The CBAM represents a structural shift in global climate governance. For the first time, a major economic bloc is integrating carbon pricing into international trade policy by applying a carbon cost to imported goods. This   mechanism   aims   to   prevent carbon   leakage,   a   phenomenon   in   which industries relocate production to countries with weaker environmental regulations in order to avoid carbon pricing constraints (Zachmann, Roth & Tamara, 2020).

  

While CBAM primarily seeks to protect the environmental integrity of European   climate policies,   its   economic implications   extend   far   beyond   the EU. Countries exporting carbon-intensive products to the European market   will   increasingly   face   regulatory   requirements   related   to   emissions reporting and carbon pricing. For developing economies that rely heavily on industrial exports to the EU, these changes may significantly affect trade competitiveness (World Bank, 2023).

  

Tunisia is particularly exposed to these developments due to its strong economic integration with European markets. The European Union represents   Tunisia’s largest   trading   partner,   accounting   for   approximately 70 percent of its exports (European Commission, 2023).

  

Several   Tunisian   industrial   sectors   that   export to   Europe,   including   cement, fertilizers, and metal products, are energy-intensive and rely largely on fossil fuels, especially natural gas.

  

As a result, the introduction of CBAM may increase export costs for Tunisian industries and potentially weaken their competitiveness in European   markets. At   the   same   time,   the   mechanism   may   act   as   a   catalyst for industrial modernisation and energy transition.

  

This article examines how   Tunisia can transform the constraints imposed by CBAM into an opportunity for green industrialisation while maintaining fiscal sustainability and economic competitiveness. It argues that while CBAM   functions   as   an   indirect carbon   tax   on   Tunisia’s   industrial   structure, it may also accelerate structural reforms toward a low-carbon industrial economy if accompanied by appropriate financial support, technology transfer, and policy coordination between Tunisia and the European Union.


1. CBAM: A New Industrial Challenge for Tunisia


1.1. Understanding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

  

The   Carbon Border   Adjustment   Mechanism (CBAM)   is   one   of   the   flagship

instruments of the European Green Deal. It was introduced to address a central   challenge   in   global   climate policy:   ensuring   that   products   imported into the European Union bear a carbon cost comparable to that faced by European producers. By doing so, the mechanism aims to preserve fair competition in the European market while supporting the EU’s broader climate objectives.

  

CBAM was designed to complement the European Union’s Emissions Trading   System (EU   ETS), which   represents   the   EU’s main   policy tool   for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (European Commission, 2023). Under the ETS framework, companies operating in certain sectors must purchase emission allowances corresponding to the amount of carbon dioxide   emitted   through their   activities.   These   allowances   create a   market-based carbon price that incentivises industries to invest in cleaner technologies and reduce their emissions over time.

  

However, differences in climate regulations across countries can create significant   competitive distortions. European industries   that are   subject to carbon pricing may face higher production costs compared to foreign competitors operating in jurisdictions with weaker environmental regulations or without carbon pricing mechanisms. This situation may encourage companies to relocate production to countries where climate policies   are   less   stringent,   a   phenomenon   commonly referred   to   as   carbon leakage. Such relocation risks undermining the EU’s climate efforts by shifting emissions abroad rather than reducing them globally.

  

The CBAM seeks to address this challenge by extending the principle of carbon pricing to imports. Under this mechanism, importers of certain goods into the European Union are required to purchase CBAM certificates corresponding to the carbon emissions embedded in those products. The price of these certificates is linked to the weekly average price of emission allowances under the EU ETS, ensuring consistency between   the   carbon costs   borne   by   European   producers   and   those   applied to imported products (World Bank, 2023).   Through this approach, the EU aims to establish a level playing field between domestic and foreign producers.

  

The implementation of the CBAM is taking place in phases. The transitional   period   (2023–2025)   requires companies   exporting   to   the   EU   to report   the   carbon   emissions   embedded in   their   products without   yet   paying a financial adjustment. This phase is intended to allow both exporting countries and EU authorities to develop robust monitoring, reporting, and verification systems. Starting in 2026, the financial component of the CBAM will become fully operational, requiring importers to purchase carbon   certificates   corresponding   to   the   emissions   embedded   in   imported goods (European Commission, 2023).

  

Currently, the mechanism applies to several sectors that are both highly carbon-intensive and significantly exposed to international trade. These include cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen (OECD, 2023). These industries were selected because they represent a large share of industrial emissions and are particularly vulnerable to carbon leakage.

  

Beyond its regulatory dimension, the CBAM represents a strategic instrument   for   the   global   transition   toward   a   low-carbon   economy.   For European companies, it protects the value of investments made in decarbonisation   by   preventing   carbon-intensive   imports   from   undermining their competitiveness. For exporters outside the EU, the mechanism presents   both   a   challenge and an   opportunity. Firms that   anticipate   these changes and adapt their production processes can transform compliance into   a   competitive   advantage,   improve   their environmental   reputation,   and secure   long-term   access   to   one   of   the   world’s most   demanding   markets in terms of sustainability.

  

Ultimately, the CBAM goes beyond a simple trade or fiscal measure. It constitutes a key tool of climate governance that seeks to align international trade with climate objectives while encouraging a broader transformation toward low-carbon industrial production.


Main Objectives and Operational Mechanisms of CBAM

  

Main Objective

Description / Operational Mechanism

1. Limiting Carbon Leakage

Companies may relocate production to countries with weaker environmental regulations, undermining EU climate policies. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) addresses this by ensuring that the carbon emissions embedded in imported goods are reflected in their price, thereby discouraging the relocation of production to jurisdictions with lower environmental standards.

2. Creating a Carbon Price Signal for Imports

CBAM converts embedded emissions into an economic cost for imported goods. This creates an incentive for non-EU producers to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to remain competitive in the EU market, thereby encouraging decarbonisation beyond the EU's borders.

3. Supporting the EU's 2050 Carbon Neutrality Goal

CBAM supports the EU's long-term objective of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. It prevents imported goods from undermining the effectiveness of EU climate policies and complements other European Green Deal initiatives, including the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the European Climate Pact, and circular economy policies.

4. Emissions Reporting

Importers are required to identify, quantify, and report the direct emissions (generated during production) and, where applicable, indirect emissions (associated with energy consumption) embedded in imported products. These reports must be accurate and supported by credible evidence, such as supplier declarations, verified emissions reports, or independent third-party audits.

5. Purchase of CBAM Certificates

Importers must purchase CBAM certificates corresponding to the embedded CO₂   emissions of imported goods. The price of these certificates is linked to the prevailing EU ETS carbon price, ensuring that imported and domestically produced goods face equivalent carbon costs and creating a level playing field within the EU market.

  

1.2. Tunisian Industrial Sectors Exposed to CBAM

  

Several   Tunisian industries   are   directly or   indirectly   exposed to   CBAM   due to their energy intensity and export orientation.

  

The cement sector is one of the most energy-intensive industries in Tunisia. Cement production requires high-temperature kilns fuelled by fossil fuels and involves chemical processes that release large quantities of carbon dioxide (IEA, 2023). If Tunisian cement producers export to European markets, they will face additional carbon costs under CBAM.

  

The fertilizer industry represents another important sector.   Tunisia is one of the world’s major producers of phosphate-based fertilizers. However, fertilizer   production   relies heavily   on   energy-intensive   processes   and   fossil fuel inputs, increasing the carbon intensity of these products.

  

The aluminium and metal-processing sectors may also face indirect exposure. Even if certain products are not directly covered, the carbon intensity   of   electricity   used   in   production   will   affect   overall competitiveness.

  

Electricity exports could also become relevant in the future if Tunisia expands   energy interconnections   with   European markets.   In   such   a   case, the carbon   intensity   of   Tunisia’s   electricity   generation   would   determine   its ability to compete with low-carbon European electricity.

  

1.3. Potential Economic Impacts

  

The economic implications of CBAM for Tunisia are likely to be multifaceted.

  

First,   exporters   will   face   increased   compliance   costs   related to   monitoring and reporting emissions. Establishing Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems requires institutional capacity, technical expertise,   and   investment   in   data   management   infrastructure   (World   Bank, 2023).

  

Second,   carbon pricing   may   increase the   cost   of   Tunisian   exports entering the   European   market. According   to   IMF   estimates,   EU   carbon   prices could reach 70 to 95 euros per ton of CO₂   by 2030, significantly affecting the competitiveness of carbon-intensive industries (IMF, 2024a). (https://sl1nk.com/kJnOX)


  

Third, CBAM may influence investment decisions within Tunisia’s industrial   sector. Companies   integrated into   European supply   chains   may face increasing pressure to adopt low-carbon production technologies in order to maintain market access (OECD, 2023).

  

In this sense, CBAM acts as an indirect carbon tax on Tunisia’s energy system and industrial structure.

  

2. Green Industrialisation as an Economic Necessity

  

2.1. Structural Weaknesses of Tunisia’s Industrial Model

  

Tunisia’s industrial structure exhibits several characteristics that increase its vulnerability to carbon pricing mechanisms.

  

Industrial production remains highly dependent on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas. Despite the country’s renewable energy potential, renewable sources still represent a  relatively small share of total electricity generation (IEA, 2023).

  

Many Tunisian manufacturing facilities also operate with aging infrastructure and limited technological modernisation. Energy efficiency levels remain lower than international benchmarks in several sectors.

  

Furthermore,   Tunisia’s industrial   specialisation   often focuses on   medium-value-added manufacturing rather than high-technology sectors. This limits   the   capacity   of   firms   to   absorb   additional   environmental   or   regulatory costs (World Bank, 2024).

  

These   structural   weaknesses   increase   exposure to   CBAM-related   risks.

  

2.2 Energy Transition as Industrial Strategy

  

Although decarbonisation is often framed as an environmental objective, it increasingly represents an economic strategy.

  

Tunisia possesses considerable solar and wind resources that could support a large-scale expansion of renewable energy production. Increasing renewable energy capacity would reduce the carbon intensity of electricity generation and strengthen the competitiveness of Tunisian industrial exports.

  

Industrial energy efficiency improvements could also generate significant economic benefits. Investments in efficient equipment and production processes often reduce operational costs while lowering emissions (IEA, 2023).

  

In   addition,   emerging   sectors   such   as green   hydrogen,   renewable energy technologies, and low-carbon manufacturing could create new opportunities for industrial diversification (IRENA, 2023).

  

2.3 Integration into Euro-Mediterranean Green Value Chains

  

The global transition toward low-carbon economies is creating new industrial value chains centred around renewable energy technologies, electric mobility, and sustainable materials.

  

Tunisia’s geographic proximity to Europe and its established industrial base   provide opportunities   to   participate   in   emerging   Euro–Mediterranean green supply chains.

  

By investing in renewable energy infrastructure and industrial innovation, Tunisia   could   attract   foreign investment   and   strengthen   its   role   in   regional production networks (OECD, 2023).

  

3 Global Gateway and European Financial Instruments

  

3.1 The Global Gateway Strategy

  

The European Union’s Global Gateway initiative aims to mobilise up to €300 billion in investments in sustainable infrastructure worldwide (European Commission, 2022). (https://sl1nk.com/tb0uO) The initiative focuses on strategic sectors including renewable energy, digital connectivity, transportation infrastructure, and climate resilience.


Global Gateway combines public funding with private investment through mechanisms   such as blended finance, guarantees, and development bank loans.

  

3.2 Financial Instruments Available to Tunisia

  

Several European financial institutions support development projects in Tunisia,   including the   European   Investment   Bank   (EIB)   and   the   European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

  

These institutions provide financing for renewable energy projects, industrial modernisation, and infrastructure development.

  

Blended finance mechanisms combine grants and loans to reduce investment risks and mobilise private capital (OECD, 2023).

  

3.3 Current Limitations

  

Despite the availability of financial instruments, several limitations remain.

  

A significant share of climate-related financing is delivered through loans rather than   grants, increasing the risk of climate-driven debt accumulation (IMF, 2023a).

  

Furthermore, there is currently no explicit mechanism linking CBAM revenues to financial support for partner countries affected by the policy.

  

This raises an important policy question: Can the EU impose carbon costs on imports without financing the decarbonisation of its trading partners?

  

4 From Carbon Tax to Development Opportunity

  

Transforming   CBAM   into   a   development   opportunity   requires   stronger alignment between European climate policy and development financing.

  

From   a   climate   justice perspective,   developing   economies   emphasise   the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, which recognises differences in historical emissions and economic capacities (UNFCCC, 2015).

  

In this context, international climate cooperation should include financial support, technology transfer, and capacity-building programmes.

  

For   Tunisia, several   strategic   priorities   should   guide   negotiations   with European partners:

  

a. Ensuring   national   energy   security before   prioritising   energy   exports.

b. Promoting local industrial participation in green infrastructure projects.

c. Protecting   fiscal   sustainability   and   avoiding   excessive debt.

d. Strengthening   transparency   in   climate-related   investments.

  

5 Fiscal   Implications   and   Budgetary   Considerations

  

5.1 Fiscal   Assessment   of   CBAM   Impacts

  

Beyond sectoral competitiveness, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is likely to generate significant indirect fiscal pressures for Tunisia.

  

Tunisia’s   vulnerability   is   closely   linked   to   its   energy   structure.   The   country’s electricity   system   remains   highly   carbon-intensive,   with   approximately   85-90% of   electricity   generated from   fossil   fuels, primarily   natural   gas,   and   an estimated carbon intensity of 0.45–0.50 tCO₂/MWh (IEA, 2023; World Bank, 2023). (https://l1nq.com/VPJg4)

  

Renewable energy represents less than 5% of electricity production, reflecting a significant gap compared to European decarbonisation levels (IEA, 2023).(https://sl1nk.com/0tZSZ)

  

This   carbon-intensive   energy   mix   directly translates   into   higher embedded emissions   in   exported goods,   which   will   be   priced   under   CBAM   (European Commission, 2023).

  

CBAM is expected to affect Tunisia’s public finances through three main channels:

  

  • Decline in export revenues: Carbon pricing between €70 and €95 per ton of CO₂   could increase production costs in exposed sectors by up to 20-30%, potentially reducing export competitiveness (OECD, 2023; IMF, 2024b). (https://sl1nk.com/zibya)

  • Increased public investment needs: Tunisia aims to reach 30% renewable energy by 2030, requiring substantial investments in infrastructure   and   industrial   decarbonisation   (ANME, 2022).

  • Energy-related fiscal pressures: Tunisia faces a structural energy deficit and high dependence on imported natural gas, which contributes to fiscal vulnerability and exposure to external shocks (World Bank, 2024).

  

Cement   Sector

  

The cement sector is one of the most carbon-intensive industries, with emissions ranging between 0.6 and 0.9 tCO₂   per ton of cement (IEA, 2023).   Tunisia’s   reliance on   petcoke   and   fossil   fuels   places   it   at   the   higher end of this range.

  

Under   a   carbon   price of   €80/tCO₂,   the   additional   cost   could   reach €50-70 per ton, significantly affecting export competitiveness (OECD, 2023).

  

Fertilizer   Sector

  

Tunisia is a major producer of phosphate-based fertilizers, a sector characterised by emissions of 1.5 to 3 tCO₂   per ton of output, depending on production processes (World Bank, 2023).(https://l1nq.com/6HtgS)

  

The sector’s dependence on natural gas and energy-intensive chemical transformations makes it particularly vulnerable to CBAM (IEA, 2023).


Electricity   Sector

  

Electricity plays a central role in determining the carbon footprint of industrial   production.   Tunisia’s   electricity   mix   is   dominated by   natural   gas, resulting   in   carbon   intensity levels   significantly   higher   than   the   EU   average (IEA, 2023; OECD, 2023).

  

This   creates a   structural   disadvantage,   as   electricity-related   emissions   are embedded   in   exported goods   and   increasingly   accounted   for   under CBAM reporting requirements (European Commission, 2023).

  

5.2 Social   Dimension   and   Just   Transition

  

The transition toward low-carbon industrialisation raises important social challenges.

  

Employment risks are particularly concentrated in carbon-intensive sectors. According to international evidence, industrial decarbonisation can lead to short-term job displacement if not accompanied by reskilling policies (World Bank, 2023).

  

In   Tunisia, these   risks   are   compounded   by:

  

  • regional   inequalities,

  • labour   market   rigidity,

  • and   limited   access to   green   jobs.

  

A   just   transition   approach is   therefore   essential,   including:

  

  • vocational   training   programmes,

  • targeted   social   protection,

  • and   inclusive   policy design   (UNFCCC,   2015).

  

5.3 Governance   and   Institutional   Framework

  

Effective   CBAM   adaptation   requires strong   governance   frameworks. Current challenges in Tunisia include:

  

  • limited   coordination   between industrial,   energy,   and   fiscal   policies,

  • weak   data   systems for   emissions   tracking,

  • and   insufficient   transparency   in   climate-related   investments.  


Strengthening Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems aligned with EU standards is essential (European Commission, 2023; World Bank, 2023).

  

Moreover, integrating climate transition into medium-term fiscal frameworks is necessary to ensure sustainability (IMF, 2023b).


6 Strategic   Policy   Recommendations   for   Tunisia

  

6.1 Develop a Data-Driven National Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy

  

Tunisia   should prioritise   CBAM-exposed   sectors (cement,   steel,   fertilizers) based on quantified emissions and trade exposure. This strategy should include sector-specific targets, investment needs, and timelines, supported   by   scenario   modelling   to   assess   competitiveness   impacts   under different carbon price assumptions.

  

6.2 Integrate   Climate   Transition   into   Fiscal   Policy   and   Budget   Planning

  

The government should incorporate climate transition costs into medium-term budget frameworks. This includes:

  

  • reallocating   inefficient   fossil   fuel   subsidies,

  • introducing   green   fiscal   instruments,

  • and mobilising international climate finance.

  

A   clear fiscal   strategy   is   essential   to   balance   industrial   support,   debt constraints, and social spending.

  

6.3 Accelerate Renewable Energy Deployment with Industrial Integration

  

Beyond   expanding renewable   capacity,   Tunisia should   prioritise   direct electrification of industry   and long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) to reduce carbon intensity in export-orientated sectors.

  

6.4 Strengthen   MRV   Systems   with   Sectoral   Differentiation

  

Tunisia should develop robust, sector-specific MRV frameworks aligned with EU standards. This requires institutional coordination, digital infrastructure, and capacity building, particularly for SMEs.

  

6.5 Promote a Just Transition Framework

  

To   mitigate social   risks,   Tunisia should   implement:

  

  • targeted   reskilling   programmes,

  • regional   development   policies   for   affected   industrial   zones,

  • and   social   protection   measures for   vulnerable   workers. This will ensure that decarbonisation does not exacerbate inequalities.

    

6.6 Negotiate   a   Redistributive   and   Cooperative   CBAM   Framework   with the EU

  

Tunisia   should advocate   for:

  

  • partial   redistribution   of   CBAM   revenues,

  • increased   grant-based   climate   finance,

  • and facilitated access to low-carbon technologies.  

  

This cooperation should explicitly address fiscal asymmetries and development constraints.

  

6.7 Support   Industrial   Innovation   and   Green   Value   Chains  

  

Public policies should incentivise low-carbon innovation through tax incentives, green public procurement, and support for startups. Tunisia can position itself in emerging green value chains (e.g., green hydrogen, low-carbon materials).

  

7 Conclusion

  

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism represents a pivotal shift at the intersection of climate policy, international trade, and industrial transformation. For Tunisia, its implications are both constraining and potentially transformative.

  

On the one hand, CBAM reveals and amplifies structural vulnerabilities within the country’s industrial model, notably its high carbon intensity and dependence   on   fossil fuels.   It   is   likely   to   increase   export costs,   weaken   the competitiveness of energy-intensive sectors, and generate additional fiscal and social pressures. On the other hand, the mechanism creates a powerful incentive to accelerate the transition toward a low-carbon and more resilient economic model, fostering industrial modernisation and integration into emerging green value chains.

  

However, this transformation is contingent upon addressing three critical dimensions.   First, financial   sustainability   remains a   major   constraint,   given Tunisia’s limited fiscal space and rising debt levels, which restrict its capacity to finance large-scale decarbonisation efforts. Second, social inclusion must be ensured to prevent the transition from exacerbating existing inequalities, particularly in regions and sectors most exposed to structural change. Third, effective governance and accountability are essential   to   guarantee   transparent,   efficient,   and   equitable   implementation of transition policies.

  

In   this   context,   the   success   of   Tunisia’s   response to   CBAM   will   depend   on its   ability   to   align   industrial   strategy,   fiscal   policy, and   social   policy   within   a coherent and forward-looking transition framework. At the same time, it requires stronger international support in the form of concessional financing, technology transfer, and fairer cooperation mechanisms.

  

Ultimately,   without   such   alignment   at   both   national   and   international   levels, CBAM risks reinforcing existing asymmetries in global trade and creating new   barriers for   developing   economies.   Conversely,   if   embedded within   a framework of climate justice and equitable burden sharing, it could serve as a catalyst for a more sustainable, competitive, and inclusive development pathway in Tunisia.

    

References

  

Agence   Nationale   pour   la   Maîtrise de   l’Énergie   (ANME). 2022.   Stratégie nationale pour la transition énergétique à l’horizon 2030. Tunis.

  

European   Commission.   2022.   Global   Gateway   Strategy.   Brussels: European Commission.

  

European Commission. 2023a. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Brussels: European Commission.

  

European Commission. 2023b. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Regulation. Brussels: European Commission.

  

European   Commission.   2023c.   EU   Emissions   Trading System   (EU   ETS). Brussels: European Commission.

  

International Energy Agency (IEA). 2023a. Energy Policy Review: Tunisia 2023. Paris: IEA.

  

International Energy Agency (IEA). 2023b. Energy Technology Perspectives 2023. Paris: IEA.

  

International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2023a. Fiscal Monitor: Climate Policies and Public Finances. Washington, DC.

  

International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2023b. Fiscal Policies for a Low-Carbon Economy. Washington, DC.

  

International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2024a. World Economic Outlook: Climate Policies and Economic Transition. Washington, DC.

  

International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2024b. Global Carbon Pricing Developments and Outlook. Washington, DC.

  

International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). 2023. Renewable Energy   Market   Analysis:   Middle   East   and   North Africa.   Abu   Dhabi: IRENA.

  

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). 2023a. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Implications for developing countries. Paris: OECD Publishing.

  

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). 2023b. The   Economic   Implications   of   the   EU   Carbon   Border Adjustment Mechanism. Paris: OECD Publishing.

  

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 2015. Paris Agreement. Bonn: UNFCCC.

World Bank. 2023. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2023. Washington, DC.

  

World Bank 2024. MENA Economic Update: Green Industrial Transformation. Washington, DC.

  

Zachmann,   G.,   Roth,   A. and Tamara,   S.   2020.   Preparing a   Carbon   Border Adjustment Mechanism in the EU. Bruegel Policy Contribution




This report has been published by the Inclusive Society Institute

The Inclusive Society Institute (ISI) is an autonomous and independent institution that functions independently from any other entity. It is founded for the purpose of supporting and further deepening multi-party democracy. The ISI’s work is motivated by its desire to achieve non-racialism, non-sexism, social justice and cohesion, economic development and equality in South Africa, through a value system that embodies the social and national democratic principles associated with a developmental state. It recognises that a well-functioning democracy requires well-functioning political formations that are suitably equipped and capacitated. It further acknowledges that South Africa is inextricably linked to the ever transforming and interdependent global world, which necessitates international and multilateral cooperation. As such, the ISI also seeks to achieve its ideals at a global level through cooperation with like-minded parties and organs of civil society who share its basic values. In South Africa, ISI’s ideological positioning is aligned with that of the current ruling party and others in broader society with similar ideals.


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