EU–Côte D’Ivoire Cooperation Agreements In The Context Of Multipolar Reconfiguration: Structural Challenges And Transformation Prospects
- Jul 31
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Updated: Aug 7
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by Prof Assi J.C. Kimou
Abstract
This policy brief analyses the evolution of trade relations between Côte d’Ivoire and the European Union (EU) within a context of multipolar reconfiguration characterised by the rise of emerging partners and the intensification of geo-economic dynamics.
An examination of trade flows highlights three principal findings. First, over the past decade Côte d’Ivoire has broadened its spectrum of trading partners, with emerging economies significantly increasing their share of its external trade. Second, this diversification has not resulted in an absolute decline of the EU, whose share in Ivorian trade remains substantial. Third, this shift has been accompanied by a sectoral polarisation of export markets: the European Union absorbs a growing share of processed Ivorian products, while emerging partners concentrate a larger proportion of their imports on primary commodities, in a context of trade deficits for Côte d’Ivoire vis-à-vis the latter.
This configuration reveals a functional differentiation among partners. The EU appears as a market outlet associated with a relative upgrading of Ivorian exports, supported by the asymmetric provisions of the interim Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and by a structuring regulatory framework. By contrast, the sustained demand for raw materials from emerging economies tends to reinforce Côte d’Ivoire’s upstream integration into global value chains.
The brief identifies several strategic challenges: the risk of lock-in into primary commodity specialisation vis-à-vis emerging partners; the high compliance costs associated with European standards for local SMEs; the risks of regional fragmentation arising from the articulation between the EPA and the ECOWAS Common External Tariff; and, for the EU, the need to secure its supply chains in an increasingly competitive environment.
In light of these findings, EU-Côte d’Ivoire cooperation would benefit from evolving towards a model centred on productive transformation, the strengthening of local industrial capacities, support for regulatory compliance, and coherence with African regional integration objectives. Such a reorientation would help transform the current trade polarisation into a lever for upgrading and foster a more balanced interdependence, consistent with the ambitions of Agenda 2063 and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Keywords: EU–Côte d’Ivoire Partnership, Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), Trade Diversification, Structural Transformation, Multipolar Reconfiguration
1. Introduction
For several decades, cooperation agreements have structured the economic relations between the European Union (EU) and the countries of Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific (ACP). However, the international environment in which these agreements were conceived has undergone profound transformation. The rise of emerging economies, the intensification of geo-economic competition and contemporary geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade hierarchies and reconfiguring patterns of interdependence. In this multipolar context, traditional cooperation frameworks are at a strategic crossroads.
These transformations call for moving beyond a strictly preferential reading of trade agreements to assess their capacity to support the structural transformation of African economies. The issue is no longer solely one of market access, but rather the quality of integration into global value chains, the resilience of partnerships, and the coherence between bilateral commitments and continental ambitions, notably those embodied in Agenda 2063 and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
In this context, the present brief examines, in light of cooperation agreements, particularly the interim Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), the dynamics of trade relations between Côte d’Ivoire and the European Union amid ongoing multipolar reconfiguration. It analyses both the quantitative and qualitative evolution of trade flows, highlights the mechanisms underpinning sectoral polarisation of export markets, and identifies the resulting structural challenges. On this basis, it outlines strategic perspectives aimed at consolidating a mutually beneficial partnership grounded in productive upgrading, regional coherence and reciprocal value chain security.
2. Methodology
This paper takes a mixed-methods approach, combining a quantitative analysis of trade flows with an institutional review of regulatory frameworks, and an analysis based on the theoretical frameworks of structural transformation and the political economy of international trade. The presented perspectives draw on research relating to productive specialisation, dependence on raw materials and integration into global value chains.
The empirical analysis draws on foreign trade data broken down by product (6-digit HS classification) and destination. These data were primarily sourced from international trade databases such as UN Comtrade, the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI), Ivorian customs statistics, and the OECD database.
To examine the sectoral polarisation of export markets, a dynamic analysis was conducted to examine how the sectoral composition of Ivorian exports to the European Union and emerging partners has evolved over time. The paper also examines the institutional determinants likely to influence the structure of trade. To this end, a qualitative analysis of the provisions of the Interim Economic Partnership Agreement between Côte d'Ivoire and the European Union was conducted.
3. The Normative Framework of Cooperation between the European Union and Francophone West Africa
Economic relations between the European Union (EU) and the countries of Francophone West Africa have, since independence, been structured by successive cooperation agreements. These arrangements have evolved over time, moving from a preferential regime to a partnership architecture aligned with multilateral trade rules. Analysing these agreements is therefore essential to understanding the geopolitical stakes and adapting future strategies, particularly in the context of EU-Côte d’Ivoire relations.
3.1 Historical Evolution: From Preferential Assistance to Strategic Partnership
Francophone West African countries and the European Union have long maintained cooperative relations. The principal orientations of this cooperation date back to the Lomé Conventions (1975, 1980, 1985, 1989 and 1995), which involved a large proportion of Francophone West African states.
These agreements granted non-reciprocal trade preferences to ACP (Africa, Caribbean and Pacific) countries, enabling their products to access the Community market on preferential terms without requiring reciprocal concessions towards European countries (Brisepierre, 2002). This regime was based on the principle of differentiated treatment and primarily aimed at supporting the development of ACP states. It was also characterised by the EU’s intention to promote compliance with certain political and social standards among its ACP partners (Lomé IV Convention, 1989).
The Cotonou Agreement, signed in June 2000 and revised in February 2005, marked a major turning point by introducing an explicit political dimension (governance, human rights, rule of law) and announcing the transition towards agreements compatible with the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Unlike the Lomé Conventions, the Cotonou Agreement for the first time dissociated trade policy from official development assistance (ODA). As tariff exemptions became increasingly difficult to reconcile with WTO disciplines (Articles 36 and 37), trade policy emerged as a mechanism to align ACP countries with the standards of a globalised market (Haguenau-Moizard & Montalieu, 2004).
Beyond this critical interpretation, the Cotonou Agreement was also presented as a means of promoting sustainable development in ACP countries, facilitating their gradual integration into the global economy and contributing to poverty reduction. This reading emphasised the expected gains from free trade (allocative efficiency and consumer welfare) alongside the financing of economic cooperation projects (Dufaut & Souaré, 2011). The transition materialised through the negotiation of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs).
More recently, the Samoa Agreement (2023) has redefined the overarching framework of cooperation between the European Union and the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States, explicitly incorporating priorities such as climate transition, security, mobility and sustainable investment (European Commission, 2023). This new framework comprises common principles applicable to all parties, as well as three regional protocols (Africa, Caribbean, Pacific), emphasising region-specific needs. It reflects a qualitative transformation of the partnership, promoted as one between equals.
3.2 Economic Partnership Agreements: Legal Architecture and Implications
The EPAs concluded with ACP countries, including Côte d’Ivoire, constitute the trade pillar of the Cotonou Agreement. They are based on progressive and asymmetric liberalisation: the EU grants full market access to exports from ACP countries, while partner countries commit to liberalising approximately 80 per cent of their tariff lines over a transitional period of 15 to 25 years, depending on the case.
Beyond this asymmetry, EPAs include several provisions favourable to ACP countries, notably:
the exclusion of sensitive products from liberalisation;
more flexible rules of origin;
safeguard measures for agriculture;
protection for infant industries.
Although these provisions help preserve policy space and mitigate adjustment costs, EPAs remain subject to debate. Some authors highlight risks of deindustrialisation and tariff revenue losses (UNECA, 2018), while others emphasise potential gains in competitiveness and investment attractiveness.
3.3 Alignment of EPAs with West African Integration Objectives
West African countries have, for several years, pursued a regional integration project aimed at creating a coherent economic space capable of supporting industrialisation, productive diversification and macroeconomic resilience (Bundu, 1996; UEMOA, 2024). This project is driven by the Economic Community of West African States and reinforced by the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which provide the principal integration instruments.
Within this process, the negotiation of EPAs with the European Union raises a fundamental strategic question: Do these agreements act as catalysts or obstacles to regional integration? Regional preference clauses within EPAs stipulate that countries within the same region grant one another the same advantages extended to the EU. In this respect, EPAs are designed to promote both regional integration and trade among signatory states.
4. Economic Aggregates and the Recomposition of Trade Partnerships
An analysis of cooperation agreements between the European Union and Côte d’Ivoire gains analytical depth when situated within the empirical dynamics of key macroeconomic aggregates.
This section adopts a comparative perspective to examine the evolution of GDP in Côte d’Ivoire and the European Union, the sectoral structure of Ivorian exports and imports, and bilateral EU–Côte d’Ivoire trade flows. These dynamics are further contextualised by the rise of emerging partners such as China, India, Brazil, Russia, Türkiye, South Africa and the Republic of Korea, in order to assess the ongoing geo-economic reconfiguration.
4.1 Asymmetrical Economic Positions
In terms of gross domestic product at purchasing power parity (GDP in PPP), a considerable gap persists between Côte d’Ivoire and its traditional partners, particularly the European Union and the United States as well as its main emerging partners, notably China and India.
Over the period 2015-2024, India’s GDP (PPP) represented on average approximately 56 times that of Côte d’Ivoire. The gap is even more pronounced with China, the European Union and the United States, whose GDP (PPP) was on average more than 150 times larger than that of Côte d’Ivoire over the same period. This disparity in economic scale reflects a profound structural asymmetry. It implies:
significantly greater shock-absorption capacity for large economies;
stronger market and bargaining power;
enhanced influence over international trade and financial standards.
In this configuration, the economic relationship between Côte d’Ivoire and its partners can be characterised as one of asymmetric interdependence: although trade flows are mutual, relative dependence is stronger on the Ivorian side, given the substantial gap in economic size and purchasing power.
Figure 1: Comparative evolution of GDP in PPP between Côte d’Ivoire and its main partners from 2015-2024
Source: Author, based on WDI
4.2 Structure of Côte d’Ivoire’s External Trade: Progressive yet Incomplete Transformation
The structure of Côte d’Ivoire’s external trade reflects a progressive, albeit incomplete, transformation. The share of primary processed products in total exports increased from 19 per cent in 2020 to 22 per cent in 2024. This shift suggests efforts towards upgrading, particularly in cocoa processing, cashew shelling and processing, as well as in certain semi-processed agro-industrial products.
However, Ivorian exports remain largely dominated by traditional agricultural commodities (cocoa, coffee, rubber and cashew nuts) and mining products. The share of mining products rose from 17 per cent in 2020 to 20 per cent in 2024. Although the proportion of raw agricultural exports has shown a declining trend, it remains the principal component of total exports.
Overall, this trade configuration indicates that, despite ongoing diversification, the Ivorian economy remains centred on low domestic value-added production and only weakly integrated into higher segments of global value chains.
Figure 2: Structure of exports and imports in Côte d’Ivoire, 2020-2024
Source: Author, based on data from the Ivorian Customs Authority
4.3 Bilateral Trade Flows between the EU and Côte d’Ivoire: Concentration of Exports on the European Market
While analysing disparities in economic size between Côte d’Ivoire and its partners helps clarify the structural foundations of their cooperation, examining bilateral trade flows is essential to empirically anchor these strategic issues.
The study of trade between Côte d’Ivoire and the European Union reveals an asymmetric configuration. On the one hand, Côte d’Ivoire represents a secondary trading partner for the European Union. Over the past five years, trade with Côte d’Ivoire has accounted for approximately 1 per cent of the EU’s total external trade, confirming the marginal nature of this relationship at the European scale.
On the other hand, dependence is significantly more pronounced on the Ivorian side. Over the same period, close to 80 per cent of Côte d’Ivoire’s total exports have been directed towards the European market. This geographical concentration of export outlets underscores the central role of the European Union in the structure of Ivorian exports.
This configuration reflects asymmetric interdependence: although trade flows are reciprocal, their relative significance differs markedly between the parties. The European Union possesses far greater capacity to diversify its sources of supply, whereas Côte d’Ivoire remains highly exposed to changes in European demand conditions and regulatory standards.
Figure 3: Bilateral trade flows between Côte d'Ivoire and the EU from 2020-2024
Source: Author, based on data from the Ivorian Customs Authority
4.4
The Rise of Emerging Partners: Broadening the Partner Spectrum Rather than Substitution
The evolution of trade flows between Côte d’Ivoire, the European Union and emerging partners reveals a dynamic of accelerated diversification, without implying a decline in European engagement.
The total volume of trade between Côte d’Ivoire and the European Union has almost doubled over the past decade, rising from approximately USD 7 billion in 2015 to more than USD 13 billion in 2024. Trade with emerging partners, particularly China, India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, the Republic of Korea and Saudi Arabia, has expanded at an especially rapid pace. Initially representing less than half of the volume recorded with the EU, these flows have gradually reached a level comparable to EU-Côte d’Ivoire trade.
This configuration indicates that the rise of emerging partners has not translated into an absolute decline in exchanges with the EU. At the same time, the EU’s share of Côte d’Ivoire’s total trade has remained relatively stable at around 37 per cent, while the share of emerging partners increased from 18 per cent to 37 per cent over the same period.
The evidence therefore points to a broadening of the partner spectrum rather than a process of substitution.
Figure 4: Comparative evolution of trade flows with the EU and emerging partners
Source: Author, based on UN comtrade
| 2015 | 2024 | Average growth rate |
UE | 7654413985 | 13360235804 | 5,7% |
Emerging economics | 2463018012 | 13039906643 | 14% |
Table 1: A comparison of trade flows between Côte d'Ivoire and the EU and its emerging partners
Source: Author, based on UN Comtrade
4.5 The Rise of Emerging Partners: Towards Greater Strategic Autonomy or Merely Diversified Dependence?
The broadening of Côte d’Ivoire’s partner spectrum raises a central question: Does this evolution signal a transition towards greater strategic autonomy, or simply a diversification of dependencies?
The structure of exports by destination reveals a functional differentiation among partners. European markets increasingly absorb Ivorian manufactured goods. While agricultural exports have recorded a downward trend, the share of manufactured products destined for the European Union rose progressively from 32.26 per cent in 2019 to 45.65 per cent in 2023.
By contrast, emerging partners concentrate a larger share of their imports on primary agricultural products, within a context of persistent trade deficits for Côte d’Ivoire vis-à-vis these partners. The proportion of primary products in exports to emerging economies increased from 51.52 per cent in 2019 to 65.28 per cent in 2023.
The expansion of the partner spectrum has therefore contributed to a sectoral polarisation of export markets. The EU appears as a transformation-orientated partner, associated with higher value-added outlets, whereas emerging partners function primarily as absorbers of primary commodities and suppliers of industrial goods.
Figure 5: Structure of exports of Côte d’Ivoire by destination
Source: Author based on OECD data
4.6 Sectoral Polarisation of Export Markets: Explanatory Factors
The sectoral polarisation observed in the structure of Ivorian exports does not stem from a simple productive specialisation choice. Rather, it reflects a strategic arbitration by economic operators in response to a differentiated set of incentives, regulatory constraints, compliance costs and market access opportunities.
An analysis of the institutional and structural determinants of this sectoral reconfiguration helps to clarify the dynamics at play. Two factors appear particularly decisive:(i) the asymmetric provisions of the interim Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Côte d’Ivoire and the European Union; and (ii) the growing demand for raw materials from emerging partners.
4.6.1 Specific Provisions of the EU–Côte d’Ivoire Interim EPA
Signed in 2016 and provisionally applied since 2019, the interim EPA between Côte d’Ivoire and the European Union goes beyond a conventional tariff agreement. It establishes an asymmetric architecture designed to facilitate trade integration while preserving policy space for Ivorian industry.
The EU has granted duty-free and quota-free access to almost all Ivorian exports. In return, Côte d’Ivoire is progressively liberalising approximately 80 per cent of its tariff lines over an extended transition period, while excluding around 20 per cent of products deemed sensitive. This asymmetry provides protective space for infant industries and mitigates the risk of deindustrialisation. The agreement includes safeguard clauses allowing the temporary reintroduction of customs duties in the event of serious domestic market disruption, thereby reducing abrupt exposure to European competition. In addition, the relaxation of rules of origin under the EPA (including regional cumulation and self-certification mechanisms) enhances the capacity of Ivorian exporters to incorporate imported inputs while retaining preferential access to the European market.
These provisions lower effective market-entry costs for processed products that comply with EU standards. They therefore create a structural incentive to export higher value-added goods to the EU.
4.6.2 Structural Demand for Raw Materials from Emerging Partners
Major emerging partners, notably China and India, have experienced rapid industrialisation based on high intensity in agricultural, mineral and energy raw materials (Brautigam, 2009; Kaplinsky & Morris, 2016). Their growth model relies on sustained demand for primary inputs, domestic processing of imported resources, and the re-export of manufactured goods.
Within this framework, Côte d’Ivoire primarily appears as a supplier of raw or minimally processed agricultural commodities. The orientation of exports towards these markets thus reflects vertical productive complementarity (Kaplinsky & Morris, 2016), but also integration at the upstream stages of global value chains.
In sum, the sectoral polarisation of export markets results from a dual mechanism: an institutional incentive towards processing under the EPA framework with the European Union; and a structural demand for primary commodities from emerging partners.
5. Key Challenges for EU–Côte d’Ivoire Cooperation in a Context of Trade Reconfiguration
While empirical evidence confirms the robustness of the EU–Côte d’Ivoire partnership, it also reveals persistent structural imbalances and intensifying geo-economic competition linked to the rise of emerging partners. In this multipolar environment, bilateral cooperation stands at a strategic juncture.
The upgrading observed in exports to European markets could act as a catalyst for accelerating Côte d’Ivoire’s structural transformation. It potentially implies higher domestic value added, the creation of skilled industrial employment, a sustainable improvement in the trade balance, and enhanced resilience to commodity price shocks. However, consolidating this trajectory entails several interdependent challenges.
5.1 The Risk of Primary Commodity Lock-In
Strong demand for raw materials from key emerging partners, particularly China and India, may reinforce an asymmetric vertical integration of Côte d’Ivoire within global value chains. The risk extends beyond trade performance; it encompasses durable specialisation in upstream segments, heightened vulnerability to world price fluctuations, and delays in domestic industrialisation.
Addressing this risk requires the development of industrial policy instruments that encourage minimum local processing (for example, first-stage processing requirements, differentiated fiscal incentives, or sector-specific contractual obligations), while remaining compatible with international commitments.
5.2 Compliance Challenges for SMEs with European Standards
Although the asymmetric provisions of the EPA create favourable incentives for exporting processed goods to the EU, the benefits of preferential access are unevenly distributed. Exports to the European market are subject to sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, technical and safety standards, sustainability (ESG) requirements, and the forthcoming EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR).
Compliance entails significant costs related to certification, traceability, equipment modernisation and supply chain digitalisation. The EUDR, for example, requires geolocated traceability of production plots, implying the mapping of millions of smallholders before full implementation. Without substantial public support, SMEs and small producers risk exclusion from the European market.
The challenge is therefore to prevent upgrading from benefiting only large integrated firms, thereby widening internal productive inequalities.
5.3 Risk of Regional Fragmentation: Circumvention of the Common External Tariff
The signature of interim EPAs on an individual basis by certain ECOWAS members, notably Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, raises regional concerns. Differentiated liberalisation may create risks of circumvention of the ECOWAS Common External Tariff (CET), trade deflection, tariff revenue losses for non-signatory partners, and divergence in integration trajectories.
Without strengthened regional coordination and harmonised rules of origin, trade liberalisation may weaken the coherence of the customs union and slow the construction of a West African common market. The challenge is therefore not solely bilateral, but fundamentally regional.
5.4 Securing European Supply Chains
From the European Union’s perspective, the growing weight of emerging partners in Ivorian trade also carries strategic implications. If primary commodity flows increasingly redirect towards Asia, or if local processing fails to progress sufficiently, the EU could face supply tensions, diminished economic influence, and reinforced indirect dependencies through value chains led by other powers.
In this context, EU–Côte d’Ivoire cooperation is not only a development issue, but also one of securing European supply chains. Multipolar reconfiguration does not invalidate the European partnership, but it redefines the conditions of its long-term sustainability.
6. Conclusion: Prospects for a Mutually Beneficial EU–CIV Partnership
In a context of multipolar reconfiguration of Côte d’Ivoire’s external trade, prospects for a mutually beneficial partnership between the European Union and Côte d’Ivoire must move beyond the classical logic of preferential market access towards a shared structural transformation strategy. The identified challenges, primary commodity lock-in, compliance costs, regional fragmentation and geo-economic competition, constitute not only constraints but also levers for strategic redefinition.
First, cooperation could evolve towards a model of co-construction within global value chains. The global value chain approach (Gereffi, Humphrey & Sturgeon, 2005) demonstrates that upgrading depends not only on domestic productive capacity but also on chain governance and contractual relations with lead firms. In this perspective, the EU could support more functional integration of Côte d’Ivoire into higher value-added segments not solely through duty-free access under the EPA, but via targeted industrial partnerships, technology transfers and the integration of Ivorian SMEs into European supply chains. Such an orientation would enable the EU to secure strategic supplies while fostering domestic productive transformation, consistent with a more balanced form of interdependence (Keohane & Nye, 1977).
Second, normative requirements, particularly SPS, ESG standards and the EUDR, can become vectors of convergence rather than instruments of exclusion. The literature on the “Brussels Effect” (Bradford, 2020) highlights the EU’s capacity to diffuse its regulatory standards globally. To prevent such diffusion from marginalising African SMEs, cooperation should include structured financing for compliance, digitalisation of traceability systems and strengthening of national institutional capacities. In the Ivorian context, support for geolocation of agricultural plots and sustainable certification could be embedded within a joint EU–African Union programme aligned with AfCFTA priorities. Standards would thereby become instruments of productive modernisation rather than mere market filters.
Third, regional coherence must remain central. Risks of circumventing the ECOWAS Common External Tariff and fragmenting national trajectories underscore the need for alignment between bilateral agreements and regional integration. EU–Côte d’Ivoire cooperation should be explicitly articulated with ECOWAS and AfCFTA objectives, supporting harmonised rules of origin, facilitation of intra-regional trade and the development of regional value chains. This approach aligns with the vision of productive African integration promoted by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, emphasising structural transformation through regional industrialisation.
Finally, from a geo-economic perspective, the rise of emerging partners does not necessarily imply substitution, but strategic diversification. For the EU, consolidating its partnership with Côte d’Ivoire means maintaining economic anchorage in a region where competition for influence is intensifying. For Côte d’Ivoire, diversification should enhance bargaining power rather than entrench dual productive specialisation. A mutually beneficial partnership therefore requires shifting the centre of gravity from a primarily commercial relationship towards co-industrialisation and reciprocal supply chain security.
In sum, the current reconfiguration offers a strategic opportunity. If anchored in substantial support for local transformation, inclusive regulatory compliance and African regional coherence, EU-Côte d’Ivoire cooperation can evolve towards a less asymmetric and more productive interdependence. Failing this, the observed sectoral polarisation risks consolidating to the detriment of the structural transformation ambitions embodied both in the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and in the European Union’s industrial strategy.
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