6/2026: South Africa's population dynamics, economic growth, and employment prospects, 2030-2045
This paper examines how South Africa’s changing population, economic growth and labour-market dynamics may shape employment between 2030 and 2045. Using population projections, GDP growth scenarios and Okun’s Law, it finds that job creation is unlikely to keep pace with labour-force growth. Even under favourable conditions, unemployment is projected to remain above 30%, highlighting the need for sustained growth and structural reforms that improve labour absorption.